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In a discussion on tech earnings, Dan, Global Head of Technology Research, emphasized the robust growth in the tech and services sector, driven by AI advancements, cybersecurity, and cloud computing. He highlighted hyper-growth areas like AI-integrated software and cybersecurity, with companies like Microsoft, Palantir, and IBM poised to benefit significantly. Despite a recent sell-off in cybersecurity ETFs, Dan sees it as a rotation phase and expects it to outperform during earnings season. He also noted the impact of increased CapEx spending, particularly in AI, supported by new tax laws. Danโs top picks include Microsoft and IBM, with the latterโs cloud computing and AI-driven revenues signaling a renaissance. Overall, he forecasts a sustained tech bull market for the next 2-3 years.
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Global Head of Technology Research. Dan, good morning. Thanks for joining us. All right. Let’s get down to it. Looking at earnings season tech and services. According to Lseg they make up pretty much all the earnings growth this earnings season. Without them earnings growth would actually be negative. Do you think the tech and services can live up to it. What are the potential pitfalls here? >> I mean look I think we’re actually going to see an accelerated growth when it comes to earnings season. The big thing here is you’re seeing on the consumer side for let’s say like a Netflix subscription. Growth especially international, is being pretty robust. I think the biggest thing here, Frank, is the AI revolution that’s now spreading across software, across cybersecurity and across. And that’s really the hyper growth that we’re seeing across tech. >> All right. So you’re seeing hyper growth. But help us out Dan I know you’re a bull. I know you’re pretty bullish on pretty much every stock in your coverage universe. But are there any stocks you see with the potential to maybe miss the mark? I mean, Tesla will be one that comes to mind. I know you cover the EV space as well, certainly having issues with deliveries and also just some brand issues at the same time. We’ve seen a weaker dollar. >> Look, I think if there’s going to be weakness, it’s going to be from the networking players. I mean, when you look like Cisco and I think maybe some of the legacy players like Dell, I think when it comes to software, I was talking about with Microsoft, and ultimately we’re going to see with Hyperscalers Cloud, of course, led by names like Palantir. And cybersecurity is going to be huge beneficiary because of these second third derivatives playing out. And I just continue to view it as a golden age for tech. And this earnings season, I think this is the start. We’ve talked about tech stocks up 10 to 15% second half of the year. >> I want to talk about cybersecurity. You have a new note out today. You’re really bullish on cybersecurity. But if you look since the start of this quarter cybersecurity has been lagging. Actually it’s actually in the red. We use a couple of ETFs that we’re going to look at the cyber down about 4.5%. Similar story for the bug. The hack only down about two and a third percent. What’s going on with this weakness. You’re bullish on it. We’ve heard a lot of analysts talk about not a golden age like you’re saying, but just a big boost in cybersecurity following the Mideast tensions. Why are we seeing the sell off when it comes. >> To cyber? I think it’s really been a rotation. Maybe some of the higher growth in software, some of these other I places. Cyber is maybe lagged here. I think the market’s gotten wrong. I think actually when you look at a subsector, cybersecurity could be the biggest subsector of the year for tech. Because what we’re seeing when you look at CrowdStrike, you look at Zscaler, Palo Alto checkpoint as more moves to the cloud, cybersecurity is going to go hand in hand. So I think this is going to be one of those areas that actually significantly outperforms during earnings season. >> We also have the quote unquote, one big beautiful bill passed, supposed to be not a golden age. I’m kind of using some of your words, but but it’s a big boost when it comes to CapEx. Who do you see benefiting from that as we look throughout the rest of the year? What big tech players benefit from this boost in CapEx spending, or who do you see spending considerably more with the idea of this bonus depreciation? >> Yeah. Look, I think front and center is massive. I Palantir I think Palantir is going to be a huge beneficiary. When we look at the bill, I think on big Tech, Microsoft, Oracle, I think front and center in terms of ones that are going to benefit. And I think what you’re really going to start to see here is more and more within the Beltway, there’s going to be huge hyper spending on AI and that it speaks on sovereigns and everyone else. And that’s why even Jensen is significantly trying to get in pole position for what’s going to be really a massive spending that’s going to happen in the Beltway. >> Does this change the investor view on CapEx spending? We’ve seen a couple quarters ago investors, they kind of punish companies for spending too much. These recent quarters kind of just mixed reaction to boost and CapEx spending. How do investors view CapEx spending now with these changes to the tax laws? >> Yeah, you want to see them aggressively on the offensive. I think right now the worry is as a company, you don’t want to see them spending too little because then they’re on the outside looking in. This is an AI arms race, a Game of Thrones that’s going on when it comes to AI. And you look at some of these changes when it comes to CapEx, you’re going to see more acceleration. And I still think investors are underestimating what this CapEx cycle is going to look like, not even the rest of this year, but into next year. And that’s why we believe this is a tech bull market that goes on for the next 2 or 3 years. >> All right. Give us your top pick. Whether it’s the Messi of AI the Saquon Barkley of AI, what’s the top pick in the tech space. And also is there a different stock that’s maybe a bellwether of how tech earnings are going. >> Yeah. And I’ll give you an under the radar one or at least relative. Look I still think Microsoft that whether it’s the Saquon you know okay. Like in terms of to me that’s the one where when it comes to hyperscalers I think they join the $4 trillion club along with Nvidia you know relative to that. But I also think you look at IBM that’s the name Rodney Dangerfield software still doesn’t get a lot of respect. But when you look at it when it comes to AI, I think what Arvind is doing there, there’s a renaissance that’s going on in Armonk. That’s why we’re very bullish on IBM, IBM. >> So will we see this, this this read on AI spending through the consulting business. Is it part of the Red hat business? What’s the indicator that the tech trade, as you say often it’s at 9:00 going to 3 a.m. Or 4 a.m. I can’t remember which. >> 1:10 p.m. >> 10 p.m. Okay. My bad. What’s the what should we be looking for in the IBM earnings that give us that signal that you’re saying it’s kind of an under the radar play? What should we be looking for? >> It’s really it’s cloud computing. And I think it’s AI driven revenue and network services you could say is under pressure. But the stack that’s what IBM is selling into a massive installed base. And I think more and more t